Comments on: Forcasting the Next Big San Fransisco Earthquake http://konquest.org/forcasting-the-next-big-san-fransisco-earthquake Because Science Matters Thu, 27 Aug 2009 08:40:28 -0700 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: Konquest Online : » “Celebrating” San Fransisco’s 1906 Earthquake | Science and Technology News http://konquest.org/forcasting-the-next-big-san-fransisco-earthquake/comment-page-1#comment-1181 Konquest Online : » “Celebrating” San Fransisco’s 1906 Earthquake | Science and Technology News Tue, 18 Apr 2006 00:49:32 +0000 http://konquest.nomis80.org/?p=85#comment-1181 [...] San Fransisco is currently remembering the 1906 earthquake that destroyed most of the city. They unveiled 2 reports estimating the loss, both human and material, that an earthquake similar to the 100 year old one would have on the city. BBC news currently has a story about this. Scientists say the next big quake - a magnitude 6.7 or larger - will likely come within 30 years. [...] [...] San Fransisco is currently remembering the 1906 earthquake that destroyed most of the city. They unveiled 2 reports estimating the loss, both human and material, that an earthquake similar to the 100 year old one would have on the city. BBC news currently has a story about this. Scientists say the next big quake – a magnitude 6.7 or larger – will likely come within 30 years. [...]

]]> By: Dave Schumaker http://konquest.org/forcasting-the-next-big-san-fransisco-earthquake/comment-page-1#comment-63 Dave Schumaker Mon, 17 Oct 2005 23:46:19 +0000 http://konquest.nomis80.org/?p=85#comment-63 If believe that study is showing that the San Andreas Fault itself has a 25% chance of rupturing in the Bay Area within the next 20 years. That's significant since it was previously thought there was only a 21% chance (according to a <a href="http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/research/seismology/wg02/" rel="nofollow">USGS study published in 2003</a>). That same study put the chances of a M7.0 or greater happening anywhere in the Bay Area within the next 30 years at 62% (though I believe that has been further revised to over 70% now!). Eek! If believe that study is showing that the San Andreas Fault itself has a 25% chance of rupturing in the Bay Area within the next 20 years. That’s significant since it was previously thought there was only a 21% chance (according to a USGS study published in 2003).

That same study put the chances of a M7.0 or greater happening anywhere in the Bay Area within the next 30 years at 62% (though I believe that has been further revised to over 70% now!). Eek!

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