San Fransisco is currently remembering the 1906 earthquake that destroyed most of the city. They unveiled 2 reports estimating the loss, both human and material, that an earthquake similar to the 100 year old one would have on the city. BBC news currently has a story about this.

Scientists say the next big quake – a magnitude 6.7 or larger – will likely come within 30 years.

The first study, When the Big One Strikes Again, was commissioned by conference organisers and provides an estimate range of the death and damage toll for Northern California if an earthquake similar to 1906 hit the region today.

The other study, produced by the US Geological Survey (USGS), shows how shaking intensity would change if the San Andreas Fault were to rupture in a different place to 1906.

USGS scientists believe they have been able to reproduce the ground motion that occurred 100 years ago fairly accurately, making it a useful model to estimate the damage caused by the next big quake.

April 17th, 2006 | Earth Sciences and Geomatics